Your fiercest rival isn't another coffee chain. It's a burger chain — and it changes by city.
A national coffee chain wanted to know which units were slipping — and benchmarked them against the obvious coffee rivals. Read against the brands its own customers actually also weigh, that comp set is wrong in nearly every market. Across eight of its biggest US metros, the #1 also-weighed brand is a fast-food chain — not a coffee one. In four of those metros (its Sun Belt cities) no coffee chain reaches the top tier of consideration at all. In Chicago the burger chain sits at 15.7% against the nearest coffee rival's 10.3%. In Los Angeles, Houston, Phoenix and Dallas the top eight also-weighed brands are all fast food — zero coffee chains present. Then the inversion: in the chain's own home metro, the rivals aren't chains at all — they're local independent coffee shops. The competitive set isn't just wider. It's a different shape in every city.
One comp set, everywhere
Build a national rival list — the named coffee chains — and benchmark every unit against it. If a store is slipping, you know which competitor is taking the occasion.
The comp set is wrong, city by city
In Sun Belt metros, no coffee chain appears in the top consideration tier — the real rivals are burger and QSR chains. In the home metro, the rivals are local independent roasters with no national chain presence. And across all markets, the drag is in the door not the cup: wait, order accuracy and drive-thru read 28% positive against 78% for the core coffee.
Your comp set is built by the city, not the org chart — so score every door against the brands its own customers actually weigh, market by market.